The Football League

I was listening to Good Morning Britain today and was a bit surprised to hear this season should be declared null and void if the rest of the games cannot be completed.

The topic of probability is believed to have been invented when Pascal et al discussed how to resolve a gambling dispute. A game had been interrupted and he had been asked to see how best to share the bets based on the current position. Although how to resolve this football conundrum is not based on simple chance, could a solution be found that is considered to be the best of a bad job? I am going to look up if Stato from Football Fantasy League has data that can be used in a minute, but there must be hundreds of people who could look at the odds and base predictions on how the league would have turned out.

The odds on Liverpool not winning the league this year must be miniscule. However, reaching the Champions league and relegations etc will have varying degrees of doubt. If it could be decided who would be promoted, for example, a second calculation could be made of a share of revenue that club would receive. This could be based on the amount of uncertainty placed on the result and could be given to the club that missed out.  Likewise, if a Premiership team was relegated they could share in some of the revenue of the team that stayed up. Another solution could be that if it was decided a few games could be played their value could be decided in advance. If it just cannot be decided who goes up or down in a few cases a throw of a multisided dice! This is just a quick look at this and would think more sophisticated approaches could be found.

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